Does Lithuania spend 10 times more on defence than Belarus and Poland hundreds of times more? What the budgets show

Publication date: 1 October 2026

Claim

Belarusian state television claimed that Lithuania's 2026 military budget is ten times larger than Belarus's, while Poland's is hundreds of times larger. In another broadcast, the same commentator put all Belarusian national security spending at about USD 600 million, Belarusian GDP at EUR 25 billion, Lithuanian spending at almost EUR 6 billion and Polish spending at EUR 49 billion.

Verdict

False and heavily exaggerated. Lithuania has sharply increased its defence budget, and Poland spends much more on defence than Belarus. The stated ratios are not supported by the published budget figures. A like-for-like comparison of Lithuanian and Belarusian military spending gives a difference of about four times, not ten. If the Belarusian comparison base is widened to include the military, law enforcement, courts and emergency services, the difference falls to about one and a half times. Poland's defence budget is about 36 times larger than Belarus's, not hundreds of times larger. It is also smaller than Belarus's annual GDP, which exceeds USD 90 billion.

In brief

• Lithuania's Ministry of National Defence reports EUR 4.79 billion for defence in 2026, equal to 5.38% of GDP.

• The Belarusian Investigative Center's review of the Belarusian budget law puts military spending at about EUR 1.3 billion and the wider total including law enforcement, courts and emergency services at about EUR 3.3 billion.

• On the same narrow military-to-military basis, the ratio is about 3.7 to 1, not ten to one.

• Poland planned about PLN 200 billion, or EUR 46.8 billion, for defence. That is about 36 times Belarusian military spending, not hundreds of times more.

• The error did not arise because neighbouring countries spend little on defence. It came from understating the Belarusian base and mixing different spending categories.

Why this matters

Defence budgets shape public perceptions of threats, foreign policy and government priorities. An inflated ratio can create an impression of almost unlimited superiority by neighbouring states and can be used to support claims of inevitable aggression, even though budget totals do not prove intent.

A sound comparison needs the same year, currency and spending scope. One country's military budget cannot fairly be compared with an incorrectly reduced figure that supposedly covers another country's entire security system.

What we checked

We checked the original statements and calculations documented by the Belarusian Investigative Center, Belarus's official 2026 national budget law, the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence statement on the approved budget, the Polish Press Agency report citing Poland's defence minister, and the published estimate of Belarusian GDP for 2025.

We did not assess whether the budgets are sufficient, how efficiently the money is spent or the armed forces' actual capabilities. Financial totals alone cannot answer those questions.

Evidence

Lithuania's Ministry of National Defence said parliament approved EUR 4.79 billion for defence in 2026, equal to 5.38% of GDP. This is a record amount for Lithuania, but it is lower than the almost EUR 6 billion cited in the broadcast.

Belarus's 2026 national budget law sets total expenditure at BYN 58.7 billion. The Belarusian Investigative Center examined the law's spending categories and converted them into euros. It found about EUR 1.3 billion for the military and approximately EUR 2 billion for law enforcement, courts and related services, including emergency response. The wider security total is therefore about EUR 3.3 billion, not USD 600 million.

Comparing the same categories, Lithuania's EUR 4.79 billion against approximately EUR 1.3 billion in Belarusian military spending produces a ratio of about 3.7 to 1. Comparing Lithuanian defence with the whole wider Belarusian security category produces about 1.5 to 1. These calculations answer different questions, but neither produces a tenfold gap.

Poland's defence minister said the country planned to spend PLN 200 billion, or about EUR 46.8 billion, on defence in 2026. Compared with approximately EUR 1.3 billion in Belarusian military spending, this is about 36 to 1. The gap is large, but saying "hundreds of times" overstates it by several multiples.

The claim that Belarusian GDP is EUR 25 billion is also inconsistent with published data. In January 2026, Belarus's economy minister said 2025 GDP exceeded USD 90 billion. Despite the currency difference, that amount is substantially larger than Poland's EUR 46.8 billion defence budget. Polish defence spending therefore does not exceed the whole Belarusian economy.

What remains unknown

Budget plans may be changed or not fully spent during the year. Countries can also classify military pensions, special funds, infrastructure, border services and other spending differently. Exact international comparisons require final expenditure under one common methodology.

The published amounts also cannot establish that a particular country intends to attack Belarus. A defence budget shows the volume of funding, not a causal link to the alleged attack scenario.

Conclusion

Lithuania and Poland did allocate more to defence than Belarus, but the broadcast multiplied the scale of the difference. Comparable figures show roughly a fourfold difference between Lithuanian and Belarusian military budgets, about a 36-fold difference between Poland and Belarus, and about one and a half times when Lithuanian defence is compared with Belarus's wider security category. Poland's defence budget also does not exceed Belarusian GDP. Verdict: false and heavily exaggerated.

Sources

1. Belarusian Investigative Center, fact-check of the claims about Lithuanian, Polish and Belarusian spending: https://investigatebel.org/en/fakenews/azarenok-defense-spending-lithuania-poland-belarus

2. National Legal Internet Portal of Belarus, Law No. 125-Z on the national budget for 2026: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=12551&p0=H12500125

3. Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence, EUR 4.79 billion defence budget for 2026: https://kam.lt/en/the-seimas-approves-record-defence-budget-of-eur-4-79-billion-or-5-38-of-gdp-in-2026

4. Polish Press Agency, PLN 200 billion defence spending plan: https://www.pap.pl/en/news/poland-raise-defence-spending-eur-468-bln-2026-defence-minister

5. BelTA, economy minister's statement that Belarusian GDP exceeded USD 90 billion in 2025: https://belta.by/economics/view/chebotar-v-belarusi-v-2025-godu-dostignut-istoricheskij-maksimum-vvp-okolo-886-mlrd-757318-2026/

6. Official portal of the President of Belarus, main parameters of the 2026 budget: https://president.gov.by/en/events/podpisan-zakon-o-respublikanskom-budzete-na-2026-god-1767167311

Corrections and updates

If revised 2026 budget execution data or comparable international estimates become available, this article will be updated. Material corrections will be listed in this section.