Is Latvia only 27% self-sufficient in food? What the agricultural-plan figure means

Publication date: 5 October 2026

Claim

Belarusian state media claimed that Latvia's food security is only 27% guaranteed and that the country's agriculture supplies less than one third of its food needs. They cited Latvia's agricultural development plan through 2036 as the source.

Verdict

False. The 27% figure does not measure Latvia's capacity to feed its population. It describes the share of Latvian-produced food in domestic consumption. Latvia simultaneously exports large volumes of its own grain, milk and eggs while importing other products, including processed goods. Official food balance data show self-sufficiency above 100% for grain, milk, eggs and beef. Import dependence is real in some categories, including pork and poultry, but it does not support an overall food self-sufficiency rate of 27%.

In brief

• The 27% figure concerns the share of Latvian-origin products in domestic consumption, not the total amount of food the country can produce.

• In 2025, Latvia produced approximately 3.4 times as much grain as it used domestically.

• Milk and dairy production was about 134% of domestic use, while eggs and egg products were about 189%.

• Combined meat self-sufficiency was about 57%, but beef was above 100% while pork and poultry were below it.

• Import share and self-sufficiency answer different questions. They cannot be substituted for each other.

Why this matters

Food security is not determined only by the origin of goods on shop shelves. It also depends on domestic production, exports, imports, stocks, processing, prices, logistics and people's access to food.

Presenting the share of local goods as a limit on national production creates the false impression that imports automatically mean a shortage of domestic food. In an open economy, a country may export commodities that it produces in surplus and import other products for variety, processing or price reasons.

What we checked

We checked the Radio-Minsk and CTV statements documented by the Belarusian Investigative Center, the presentation for Latvia's 2026-2036 agricultural development plan, the draft plan on Latvia's official legal-acts portal and the 2025 food balance tables of the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia.

We compared production with domestic use for grain, milk, eggs and meat. We did not assess prices, household income, dietary quality or the resilience of supply during an emergency. Those questions cannot be answered from one indicator about the origin of products.

Evidence

Materials for the agricultural development plan do discuss a high import share in domestic consumption and the goal of strengthening the local market. This describes the composition of the market. It does not establish that Latvian agriculture can cover only 27% of the population's needs.

The difference is clear in the grain balance. According to the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, the country harvested about 3.2 million tonnes of grain in 2025 and used about 0.9 million tonnes domestically. The more precise balance figures produce a self-sufficiency ratio of about 344%. Much of the crop is exported.

Milk and dairy production was about 978,700 tonnes, while domestic use was about 731,300 tonnes. This corresponds to self-sufficiency of roughly 134%. Latvia produces more milk and dairy products than it uses domestically.

Production of eggs and egg products reached about 966.1 million units, compared with domestic use of about 510.5 million. The ratio is approximately 189%. This is also incompatible with the claim that the country as a whole can meet only 27% of its food needs.

The picture for meat is mixed. Combined production of the main meat categories was about 90,100 tonnes, against domestic use of about 158,200 tonnes, or approximately 57%. Beef production was around 162% of domestic demand, poultry 57% and pork 44%. Latvia relies on imports in some segments, but not in all of them.

These figures do not mean that Latvian agriculture has no problems. The development plan itself seeks higher productivity, more output and a stronger position for local producers. Those policy goals do not turn the share of domestic goods into an overall food self-sufficiency ratio.

What remains unknown

An aggregate balance does not show whether food is affordable for every household, how quickly production can be reorganised during a crisis, or how much the sector depends on imported fertiliser, fuel, feed, machinery and seasonal labour.

The 2025 figures may be revised. Food balance categories also do not cover every product in the same way, so they cannot be reduced to one universal percentage without a transparent method and weighting system.

Conclusion

The claim that Latvia is only 27% self-sufficient in food relies on a switch between different indicators. The figure describes the share of domestic-origin food in local consumption, not the country's maximum capacity to produce food. Official balances show surpluses of grain, milk, eggs and beef alongside substantial imports in other categories. Verdict: false.

Sources

1. Belarusian Investigative Center, fact-check and links to the original broadcasts: https://investigatebel.org/en/fakenews/latvia-food-self-sufficiency-belarus

2. Latvia's official legal-acts portal, draft 2026-2036 agricultural development plan: https://tapportals.mk.gov.lv/legal_acts/fdede456-20a3-43ff-8b0a-3eded3abf2ab

3. Latvian Ministry of Agriculture materials for the 2026-2036 roadmap: https://llkc.lv/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/D.Freimane-Rezekne.pdf

4. Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, grain balance: https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__NOZ__LA__LAB/LAB010

5. Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, milk and dairy balance: https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__NOZ__LA__LAB/LAB030/

6. Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, eggs and egg products balance: https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__NOZ__LA__LAB/LAB040/

7. Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, meat balance: https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__NOZ__LA__LAB/LAB050

Corrections and updates

If the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia revises the 2025 food balances or publishes a new comparable assessment, this article will be updated. Material corrections will be listed in this section.